Coronavirus Epidemiology: A Semester Research Project

Presenter: Serina Cabrera

Co-Presenter(s):
Dirk Tolson III

Presenter Status: Undergraduate student

Academic Year: 20-21

Semester: Spring

Faculty Mentor: Omayra Ortega

Department: Mathematics

Funding Source/Sponsor: LSAMP, McNair

President's Strategic Plan Goal: Connectivity and Community Engagement, Diversity and Social Justice, Adaptability and Responsiveness

Screenshot URL: https://drive.google.com/uc?id=1oA6h0BPkTHVAPEEKS5CRMFzjGVo0VXWN

Abstract:
In this project, we explored three different models for Covid-19. The models were originally sourced from the following paper: “Research about the Optimal Strategies for Prevention and Control of Varicella Outbreak in a School in a Central City of China: Based on an SEIR Dynamic Model” by Wen-ting Zha, [6]. The three models that we explored from this article were the SEIR, SEIQR, and SEIRV models. With these models, we observed the relationships between individuals in the susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered populations; with each model as it applies to the population and estimated rates for the Rohnert Park area, specifically Sonoma State University. With the SEIQR and SEIRV models, we included the isolation and vaccination rates respectively to observe what changes would occur within our four main stages of infection. For future work, we plan to continue adjusting the parameter estimation for Sonoma State University to create more accurate models. We also would like to take a look at different communities based on ethnicity and further build our models to fit those communities. Specifically, adjusting our parameter estimations to accurately reflect each ethnic community.